My team – namely Asia and Noha – did a mighty job reviewing public multiples (EV-to-Revenue) and their recent journeys across different sectors. In the next step, they compared these public multiples to multiples of their private counterparts in the region. The results speak for themselves. And because sharing is caring, here I am serving you the research.

I wrote in the last newsletter that “median tech valuations fell across most stages in Q2’22 vs. Q1’22” and that “the valuations reset is bound to continue”. The graphs presented here reflect on that fall.

So much room to ungrow

We track a total of 100+ publicly listed companies that match the sectorial make-up of our region. Fintechs, CRMs, F&Bs, e-commerces, transport co’s, etc. We follow their QoQ ups & downs in terms of EV-to-Revenue multiples. Tracking public multiples is a daily bread for a VC like us. It provides us with a clearer idea on whether the valuations of private companies (in the region) are too high or reasonable. Well, you can guess… I must say some valuations we’re seeing these days have already become more realistic, but there is plenty room to grow (or rather… ungrow).

I’ll start with public multiples and their trajectories since the end of 2018 until mid-2022 – that is, including pre-covid, covid, post-covid, energy crisis… the full menu. (Small note: these public multiples are based on TTM revenue.)

Graph 1 – examples of selected public companies in the fintech space. Their trajectories are creating beautiful parallels, except for Square’s peak that happened 6 months ahead of the rest. Note that, as of June’22, only Mastercard and Visa were still above their pre-December’18 levels, while Shift4 Payments, PayPal and Square were already below those levels. We will look out for the numbers as of September’22 to see whether the plunge will continue or finally stabilize…

Graph 2 – examples of selected public companies in CRM and CX spheres. In contrast with the above fintech graph, the trajectories here are not so parallel. Shopify was on a plateau from June’20 till June’21 before taking a nose-dive. HubSpot followed the curve of fintechs, while Salesforce.com and IBEX Holdings were rather consistent. One thing clear; the reset is on.

Next, I present a median public multiple per specific vertical and multiples of startups (labeled A, B, C…) that are active in the given vertical. Note: because definitions may be too wide or overlapping, the presented median doesn’t include all available public multiples for the given sector (e.g. fintech), but it is the median multiple of only those public companies whose activities are the same as of the showcased startups… The selection pool may seem small to you, but that’s because each graph is showing only a specific vertical. Also note: the data on private multiples is limited (of course).

The showcased startups (A, B, C…) are homegrown in the MENA region and the graphs below serve to demonstrate the discrepancies between multiples and the available “room to ungrow” when it comes to valuations of MENA startups. Startup multiples are calculated based on revenue (last month annualized) and latest round valuation (LRV).

Graph 3 – the median public multiple (5.3x) represents multiples of Square, Fawry, PayPal, Visa, Mastercard, Affirm and Zip Co*. Only one startup in the exhibit (startup A) had a revenue multiple lower than the median public multiple (4x). This suggests that at least half of the analyzed fintech startups has valuations that could require corrections in the near future. It should be noted that several fintech startups raising at the moment have minimal or no revenue and we have not included those in the above graph (because then it would look scarier and it’s not Halloween yet).

Graph 4 – the median public multiple (6.01x) represents multiples of Salesforce.com Inc, IBEX Holdings Ltd and Shopify Inc*. Only one startup in the exhibit (startup A) had a revenue multiple lower than the median public multiple (4.56x). So, we can assume that majority of the region’s CRM/CX startups out there are overvalued. No breaking news here.

Next time you’re negotiating a valuation, be mindful of the above. Don’t bandwagon and jump onto deals as this may one day result in a real damage to our regional ecosystem. The valuation reset is likely to continue in the coming quarters if the energy crisis deepened further. Well, winter is coming…

* Like I explained earlier, this is a selection of public companies that best matches the vertical of the showcased startups in the given graph.

263% of minimum goal raised

GoPillar launched its crowdfunding campaign on Republic as the startup aims to further revolutionize the architectural design market. Contribute here.

Studying Citron

INSEAD published a case study on Citron entitled “Global Expansion of a Consumer Goods Start-up from the Middle East”.

e-waste in Saudi

Cartlow partnered with stc pay to boost the circular economy in the Kingdom. Cartlow will empower the KSA consumers to eliminate e-waste by selling their devices on the platform whilst earning stc pay credit.

+1 photo

Here’s Laith’s souvenir from his visit to Tunisia, where he attended AfricArena North Africa Summit 2022.

• (different roles) at Retailo (UAE, KSA)
• (different roles) at TruKKer (UAE, KSA)
• Partnerships Marketing Executive at Khazenly (Cairo)
• Public Relations Manager at Lucky (Cairo)
• Senior Graphic Designer at Citron (Dubai)
• Senior Sales Executive – Outdoor at Zid (Riyadh)
• Marketplace Manager at Cartlow (Riyadh)
• Software Engineer (ROR) at Qoyod (Cairo)

See you at GITEX and RiseUp Riyadh… and possibly elsewhere 😉

Hasan

Hoarding money for worse times? Not trending with everyone. Some startups are burning more cash than ever. VCs keep spending, too. a16z wrote its largest individual check ever ($350M) to a pre-launched residential real estate startup Flow, which was founded by Adam Neumann – the WeWork founder. Fingers crossed that the future of Flow won’t have a similar fallout and Adam will be a nicer boss.

To hoard or not to hoard? Hamlet in 2022.

2 headlines stand out from the last few days. Adam Neumann’s comeback and Saudi’s PIF shopping for US-based stocks worth $7B. The Fund’s portfolio has hit the market value of $40.8B after it bought shares in Zoom, Meta, Starbucks, PayPal…

3rd headline out there: Global VC funding is descending the ladder it climbed in 2021. CB Insights projects Q3’22 results to be very similar to Q3’20 because:

– growth and late-stage deals are down, early-stage is rising,
– payment startups funding saw its largest drop QoQ since 2020,
– blockchain is down except in Europe (a record of 106 deals last quarter),
– insurtech funding levelled off,
– manufacturing tech shows resiliency,
– healthtech AI and wearables are thriving,
– cybersecurity will keep on attracting funding and
– tight labor market in certain sectors. As companies have less talent to choose from, they must retain the talent they have and pamper the employees with higher compensation levels.

All the while, deposits at Silicon Valley Bank are going downhill but the lack of VC funding is not the main reason; some startups haven’t put a break on their cash burn. Before they can cut back on spending, startups need to take care of expenses like severance packages for terminated staff… We will only get to see the belt-tightening affecting runway balances in Q3’22.

Let’s bring our region under the lens. The drop in global venture funding shown above is the opposite of what happened in the Middle East during H1’22. Up the ladder.
During the first six months of 2022,

– 70% up: $1.7B was invested through 332 deals vs. $1B and 312 deals during the same period last year.
– Majority of the funding went into UAE-based startups (37.2%), followed by Saudi and Egypt (source: Digital Digest #191).
– Three-digit growth: Saudi attracted 245% more funds compared to H1’21. Bahrain 678% more 🤑
– Egypt, too. Egyptian startups attracted 106% more. But layoffs and shutdowns are a common scenario these days – and not only in Egypt (source: H1 2022 UAE Venture Report).

Up the ladder go the region’s SWFs, too. PIF for one (see the intro). Mubadala keeps investing opportunistically.

Up but for how long? July’22 and its $105M in deals showed a 68% MoM drop in VC funding across the region, which is possibly due to summertime and people finally taking proper time off work after 2 years. And possibly also because of the global trends? We must wait for complete Q3 data to be wiser. However, so far, August’22 balance stands at ~$201M across 25 deals and the month is not over yet. Back-to-school/office season kicks in 2 weeks and that should boost the end of this quarter. P.S. We @ArzanVC are considering 5 deals at the moment.

Plus, there’s that increased M&A activity around us. Market consolidation is on fire and in daily news. Our in-house research tells us that 53 startups got acquired since January’22 (vs. 42 in the whole of 2021). That includes our Cartlow and its acquisition of Melltoo.

On the startup front, founders have been forced to shrink their over-hired teams. Blitzscale strategies are also over. Unit economics 101 is in full swing even before the school started. Founders and their teams are being once again forced to learn how to take control of their runways. (Arzan VC team is here to advise if you need it. First session free of charge :P).

Like I hinted above, the region’s VC funding will most probably drop in Q3’22, and that would be the first time since Q4’20. Despite that – valuations everywhere remain high. The recent Tech Valuations Report Q2’22 by CB Insights shows that valuations are still above 2020 levels although median tech valuations fell across most stages in Q2’22 vs. Q1’22. That’s because although we’ve seen some rounds with lower valuations, the best startups out there haven’t done down rounds yet. When they start doing that, we will get closer to 2020 levels – and we certainly will, because the valuations reset is bound to continue. The infograph below reflects global valuation data (source: CB Insights Tech Valuations Report Q2’22).

Teams are consolidating along with the market. While some companies are forced to resort to layoffs, there’s an upside: influx of high-performing tech talent that is ready to get hired. Some of our portfolio companies are making key hires right now. Check them out below.

Melltoo ➡️ Cartlow

Cartlow acquired Melltoo, a classified platform for second-hand items.

$20M for Swvl

Swvl announced $20 million private placement from US-based institutional investors.

5% cashback

Khazenly partnered up with Lucky to allow its customers to benefit from the Lucky One card for free. 5% cashback included.

Talabat gifts

Merit Incentives partnered with UAE’s talabat to provide customers with digital gift card solutions redeemable on any talabat offerings.

• Partnership & Sales Manager at Merit (Kuwait)
• Business Development Manager – KSA at Cartlow (Riyadh)
• Product Manager at Zid (Riyadh)
• (multiple vacancies) at Citron
• Creative Marketer at Haseel (Riyadh)
• Senior Backend Engineer at SubsBase (Cairo)
• Senior Accountant at Armada (Kuwait)

It’s the school and summits season again… Anyone at Tunisia’s AfricArena Summit this week? Laith is around 😉

Hasan

Before you take off for your annual leave, scan through our vacation & workcation tips for useful apps and gadgets and great reads and listens. Don’t worry, you’ll fit within the 30kg limit🧳

Did you pack the books you won’t read anyway?

You may be escaping your office and leaving behind a simple “out-of-office: I’m in Mykonos” email greeting to make us all heart-eyes & jealous (while some of us may realize we’ll be your island neighbors for the next 2 weeks)… but did you realize that – no matter where we choose to spend this year’s holidays – none of us will ever escape the tech space? Unless you’re spending this August on a deserted island without network… yea, sometimes we feel like doing that, too.

I mean, vacations would never be the same again if we took away the tech aspect – and I’m not referring to deleting the Outlook app on your phone and saying goodbye to the 29 unread emails… So, let’s have a look at some really useful tech for summer holidays (and some non-tech, too).

Workcation starts in 3, 2, …
Are you off to the Mediterranean this year or did you find a new secret hideout somewhere remote? They say holiday rentals are a market driven by millennials, but I think the credit goes to others, too. Some people are simply getting sick of overcrowded resorts and rivieras. Viva remote places. They’re ideal for when you can’t afford to leave all your work behind, because most of today’s holiday rentals match all the “relax a lot & work a bit” expectations you may have.

We gathered for you some handy tips to make this year’s vacations & workcations relaxing, FUN and, of course, work EFFICIENT.

Super useful apps
1. Krisp. An excellent noise cancelling app for all those coffeeshop calls (or when in zoo).
2. Kindle for travelling light.
3. Windfinder will let you know whether it’s a good day to finally try that wakeboarding… and survive the day in one piece.
4. Peak Visor. 3D maps for all the mountains around.
5. Star Chart (iOS) / Star Chart (Android) for late-night sky gazing rituals.
6. UV Safe – Sun Protection (iOS) / QSun – Sun Safety Advisor (Android) will remind you to reapply your sunscreen in between the snorkeling…
7. Any good weather app. Although, with London reaching 40’C and recurrent heat waves all over the northern hemisphere, it makes me wonder if weather apps will one day end up like dinosaurs… extinct.

Gadgets we approve of
1. 830 grams. That’s like 4 Granny Smith apples. Or like the portable projector The Freestyle from Samsung that takes care of the audio & lightning, too.
2. AR shades Spectacles will protect you from the ultraviolet A and B sun rays. Package includes a 3D viewer. Heads up: kids will love this, too, so maybe you shouldn’t tell them about the AR part.
3. Phoozy Thermal Capsules will keep your phone from overheating while on the beach or playing padel. Alternative: an old-school ice box, but Phoozys are sink-proof so…
4. Have you ever had a favorite notebook and you wished it’d never run out of empty pages? Here’s a smart notebook from Rocketbook. You can wipe out whatever you wrote and use each page all over again.
5. And, summertime or not, it’s always a good idea to stay hydrated (unless you really love using telemedicine). That’s why they made Nix – the first biosensing wearable which reminds you to drink. Pre-orders open.

You will enjoy reading these… and not just before sleep
1. Founders at Work by Jessica Livingston – a tip from Laith
2. Picking Growth Stocks by T. Rowe Price Jr. – a tip from Adeel
3. The Laws of Human Nature by Robert Greene – a tip from Mohanad
4. The Woman from Tantoura by Radwa Ashour – a tip from Asia
5. Breath: The New Science of a Lost Art by James Nestor – a tip from Dominika
6. One Hundred Years of Solitude by Gabriel Garcia Marquez – a tip from Maha
7. The Monk Who Sold His Ferrari by Robin Sharma – a tip from Noha

Great listens (maybe while hiking?)
1. 20VC. We don’t mind at all that the episodes last more than 20 minutes.
2. The Missing Crypto Queen. Dedicated to one of the most successful crypto scam artists.
3. J Bravo/Bill Stenzel. Personal finance, entrepreneurship and crypto with a fun twist.
4. The Anjunadeep Edition for warm and soulful house and electronica. No talking in this one.

Luxury UK

The Luxury Closet launched in the UK earlier this month and their plan is to launch further markets within Europe by year-end.

🍽️🍼🎒

Citron launched its 2022 Collection – the largest ever – featuring new categories and styles for kids, teens and adults.

Up we go

Retailo landed on Arabian Business’ list of top 30 rising Middle Eastern startups of 2022.

Good teams

FlexxPay discussed building a resilient workforce in July’s issue of Gulf Business Tech Edition.

Lucky Capiter

Lucky’s partnership with Capiter will allow the latter’s network to receive Lucky One cards for free and access a wide range of exclusive cardholder benefits.

• Sr Frontend Engineer / Sr Backend Engineer at SubsBase (Cairo)
• Sr Ruby on Rails Engineer at Qoyod (Cairo)
• Enterprise Technical Executive – Customer Success at Gameball (Cairo)
• Head of Outbound Sales at Zid (Riyadh)
• Sr Accountant at Lucky (Egypt)

We @ ArzanVC always reply ASAP! 😛

Hasan

June has kept us all over the place just like May 🤹. We announced an investment in Khazenly, a Cairo-based on-demand digital warehousing and fulfillment platform… and our 7th startup from Egypt (lucky 7? :P). Khazenly team, welcome again to our big Arzan VC Family!

Just on that same day, Fatura (AVC Fund II) announced that it got acquired by Tanmeyah Micro Enterprise Services (an EFG Hermes subsidiary). And last Friday, MUNCH:ON (AVC Fund I) got acquired by Careem – our former Fund I company. (And that brings us to 11 exits to-date 😎).

Well, enough unintended bragging for now, do you know what these have in common?
– A $560K New York Times column.
– Beeple’s $69M JPEG.
– Jack Dorsey’s $2.9M tweet.
– Kristel Bechara’s Beauty in DeFi.
NFTs. Vatican got involved in them too, so there must be something holy good about them. Let’s find out what it is.

NFTing the Middle East

First off, let’s recap what non-fungible tokens are:
– digital assets or virtual goods — which can range from images to songs to videos to tweets — that are verified through blockchain technology
– non-fungible = no 2 NFTs can be identical
– inspired by the success of cryptocurrencies and powered by blockchain
– a new way to buy & sell digital items such as collectibles
– a new form of royalties for digital creators
– thanks to NFTs, assets can be certified as authentic (thanks to digital signatures of the artists themselves)
– the owners are able to claim exclusive ownership over these digital assets

The typical process to buy or sell an NFT:
1/ Set up a digital wallet and buy cryptocurrency
2/ Connect your wallet to an NFT marketplace
3/ Mint/list your NFT or start bidding on pieces

CB Insights’ 2021 Blockchain Report notes that last year there were 250+ rounds in NFT space (vs. 21! in 2020), collectively raising over $4.8B (130x more than in 2020), with US driving ~80% of all Q4’21 funding, followed by Asia and Europe.

Why the sudden global excitement for NFTs?
1/ because “decentralization” / Web 3.0 ecosystem is very attractive right now and NFTs are a building block of a “user-first” future
2/ new sources of revenue for everyone – from big brands to local street artists
3/ the classic “get in before it gets too pricey” argument

Future use cases:
– writers’ content distribution and monetization
– NFTs as loan collateral (from DeFi to NFTfi)
– NFT index funds
– selling diamonds via NFTs
– burning calories and getting rewarded with NFTs (fitness x video games)

What’s Middle East’s footprint in NFTs?
In terms of interest in NFTs, UAE ranks 7th globally (first places belong to Southeast Asian countries and Canada), and Lebanon is on the 10th spot, ahead of the USA.
However, our region’s traffic to NFT marketplaces remains at below 10% of the global traffic as shown on the graph below.

In 2021, three regional NFT marketplaces raised about $10M according to Wamda. Nifty Souq claims to be the first and biggest inclusive and environment friendly NFT marketplace in MENA (more about the envi-friendly aspect below). In Egypt, Odiggo, who you’d all know as a car parts marketplace, recently pivoted into an NFT marketplace. Meanwhile in Saudi, only days ago, Saudi’s first NFT marketplace NuqtahNFT signed a partnership with US’ Consensys to facilitate knowledge transfer and empower Web 3.0 startups in KSA. And if you attended the 116th session of the UN World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) in Jeddah, you were lucky to get an NFT souvenir — courtesy of the Saudi Tourism Ministry.

In the world of art – in parallel – the region’s first online NFT exhibition took place in November 2021 thanks to UAE-based Emergeast gallery. Meanwhile, Kuwait held its first NFT art exhibition last year at Gallery Bawa. NFTs are becoming popular among artists in the Middle East (here’s your top 15 watchlist), mainly because they believe that NFTs will help them protect their rights and provide them with a just financial compensation.

What’s the NFT regulatory framework like in the Middle East? Many grey areas. The future may possibly require NFT AML laws to support the growing purchases. Blockchain is not allowed in Egypt and, until recently, cryptocurrencies were banned in Qatar. For now, Dubai is at the forefront thanks to its Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA), which was set up earlier this year to manage the issuance and trade of virtual assets and virtual tokens and authorize virtual asset service providers (among other tasks). In May, VARA joined the Metaverse to become Dubai’s – and the Metaverse’s – first government authority.

I mentioned above the environmental friendliness of NFTs. Or should we say unfriendliness? Transacting on blockchain is surprisingly very energy intensive. One transaction consumes more energy than an average UAE citizen consumes on a weekly basis (source: Money Supermarket/Wamda). Could this become a major setback for NFTs in the long run?

Whether you’re an NFT fan or not – what’s your take on NFTing the Middle East? Is it all only a temporary marketplace wrapped in naive enthusiasm? Too early to tell, of course. But its implications for the art and gaming industries are real and significant, and most probably here to stay. In the Middle East, too.

(you’re the) Lucky One

Lucky launched its new Lucky One card that comes with a wide list of benefits – and cashback on every transaction.

Hola Madrid

Merit Incentives‘ CEO Julie Barbier-Leblan will be speaking at Loyalty & Awards conference in Madrid in October 2022.

Get popcorn

TruKKer has released its official film “Highway To Future!” On-road. Off-road. Through the lens of a driver’s life and up to a freight’s fate.

Push to grow

Gameball explores how to use push notifications & in-app notifications to drive massive growth to your store in their latest blog.

• Financial Reporting Manager at Cartlow (Cairo)
• Business Development Manager at Merit Incentives (UK/Hybrid)
• Senior Back-End Developer at SubsBase (Cairo)
• Digital Marketing Manager at Citron (UAE)
• Junior Graphic Designer at Citron (UAE)

Our Cairo team – Mohanad & Noha – will be at the Flat6Labs investor mixer on July 6 — ping us if you’re also attending… 😉

Hasan

I’ve waited to release the May issue until we conclude our very intense and fun team-building session in Cairo. We welcomed back on-board Mohanad Elhartany – our Senior Investment Associate, and freshly welcomed our new CFO: Adeel Shahid 😎. (Special thanks to Cairo Marriott Zamalek for hosting us at the Palace.)

We’ve done hours of internal meetings, one-on-one pitch-sessions with 15+ local startups – even managed to fit in between that some refreshing walks around Zamalek and Downtown, and we topped it all with a super pleasant evening at Crimson where we gathered 50 people from the local ecosystem: VCs, angels, founders and – of course – our founders from Lucky, Fatura, Gameball and Subsbase. Oh, here’s a little secret: we have a new addition to our local portfolio – TBA soon. We’re really excited to be investing more in Egypt and growing our Cairo team.

@Swvl team – we will catch up with you in Dubai 😉

May didn’t end for us with Cairo though. I’m in Qatar right now where I’ve just had a live session on “All about Growth & Investment” at the Digital Incubation Center. Thank you @DIC Team for having me!

Last but not least — while we were in Cairo, Middle East Startup Awards took place in Abu Dhabi — and Arzan VC was a top 3 finalist in the “VC of the Year” category… (next year we’re winning :P)

Our startups @Egypt

The latest from the lives of our Egypt-based startups and their founders. We asked each founder about what they have been up to in the last 12 months, including the most exciting moment, and what’s their goal for the rest of the year…

Yes, we’re Lucky to have you:

• – introduced its credit pilot 8 months ago, extended credit to thousands of customers
• – received the first fintech credit card approval in the Egyptian market in addition to the agent banking license allowing Lucky to operate its own card program in full
• – Exciting moment: their Series A round was the largest Consumer fintech round in Egypt ever
• – 🔜 start on-ground card distribution and extend instant consumer credit products
• – Founders’ goal: to become Egypt’s leading digital bank in 2 years from now

A Fatura beyond FMCG:

• – followed an aggressive merchant acquisition across Egypt and built a fully digitized embedded financing cycle
• – Exciting moment: crossing $100M annualized GMV
• – 🔜 fully establish multiple markets beyond FMCG (already piloting)
• – Founders’ goal: a successful IPO

The ball keeps rolling at Gameball:

• – achieved 3x organic growth YoY, reduced churn to 4%, improved retention and more than quadrupled their customer base (whoa!)
• – Exciting moment: introducing a Growth team and witnessing instant growth in all metrics
• – 🔜 optimize for enterprise and achieve 10+x growth YoY
• – Founders’ goal: build an inspiring organization that defines benchmarks for others to follow

Subsbase is collecting long-term customers:

• – finalized the product and kicked-off
• – grew the team, revenue and market share while landing enterprise scale customers
• – Exciting moment: landing their first enterprise customer with a 3-year commitment
• – 🔜 more growth (presence, reach, team)
• – Founders’ goal: become the main driver and catalyst behind the creation and adoption of subscription businesses in the region

Swvling on Nasdaq:

• – the acquisition spree Swvl has been on in the last several months: Viapool (Argentina), Shotl (Spain), door2door (Germany), Volt Lines (Turkey) and Zeelo (UK)
• – 115+ cities in 18+ countries and counting
• – Q1 results from this year show 4x growth in total ticket fares and 3.9x increase in bookings (both YoY)… What’s next, Swvl?

+ 1 new investment in Egypt: an e-commerce fulfillment and logistics startup. Keep your eyes and ears open for the announcement 👻

Founder of the year

Klaim’s co-founder Karim Dakki was awarded Founder of the Year by Middle East Startup Awards 2021. Also, Klaim will be attending the 9th Annual MENA Health Insurance Congress on 12-13 May 2022 (Dubai).

Top CRM companies

Repzo was listed as one of the top Arab World-based CRM companies by BestStartup.Asia.

Swvl on a spree🛍️

Swvl acquired Zeelo, a UK-based B2B smart buses operator, in a deal valued at $100M.

Fresh from the press

New issue of Qoyod’s magazine is out!

• Country Manager – Germany at Mejuri (remote)
• Business Development Manager – KSA at Cartlow (KSA)
• SaaS Sales Executive at Repzo (Amman)
• Senior Accountant at Armada Delivery
• HR Specialist at Qoyod (Riyadh)
• Creative & Fashion Specialist at The Luxury Closet (Dubai)

Laith & I are off to Dubai (June 5 & 6) and then Abu Dhabi (June 7). Let’s grab a quick coffee?

Hasan